Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 17 March

Worldwide GDP forecast looks positive. After downturn for several months, positive GDP is forecast in all countries; 2021 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently 5.6%.

Unemployment continues to be high. According to the OECD, the unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 6.8% in December 2020.

- SECTOR IMPACT-

Latest update: 21 June

Sales review

May’s light vehicle sales have now been reported for all global markets. They show a 36.2% year-on-year increase, which was not unexpected due to the impact COVID-19 had on the prior year’s sales. For the second consecutive month all major regions contributed high double figure gains.


Despite the positive year-on-year gains it was largely a disappointing month for sales. The SAAR for most regions – excluding North America – slipped back markedly in May leaving a global SAAR of 80.8m, the lowest level recorded since January and February.

The perilous state of many economies, COVID-19 infection rates, the progression of new variants and the stringency of lockdown measures all affect lightvehicle sales. In key West European markets a direct correlation was apparent between lockdown stringency and sales in May. In Chile, the success of the vaccination program there allowed the market to outperform other markets in the region in May.


In general, May’s market finished below GlobalData’s expectations for the month. Our model baked in a 42% gain for the month, marginally stronger than the month’s 36% outcome.

Sales outlook 2021

On the back of May’s sales GlobalData’s forecast for the year has been downgraded to 85.5m, a 13% increase on 2020 but 4% lower than 2019’s total.


Year-on-year comparisons against low bases in play in the first half as seen in February through to May. We anticipate that June will be the final month of double digit year-on-year gains.


Globally, for H2, YoY increases are forecast to level out at 0.5% on average now versus 1.5% in our last report. Outside Europe, our forecast remains largelysimilar to our previous release. As ever, that could be subject to change due to ongoing disruption that the pandemic brings to markets

Chip shortage

A new analysis by GlobalData puts the first half revenue losses incurred by OEMs at between $47.7 and $77.4bn.


Worldwide 141 plants have suffered shutdowns. GM’s Fairfax plants has been down for 21 weeks in the first half, its Ingersoll plant for 18 weeks while Stellantis’sWindsor minivan plant has been down for just over 18 weeks.

SAAR more pertinent in this phase of recovery than YoY gains

While global light vehicle sales increased 36.2% in May, but in the recovery phase an eye on SAAR remains more important.


For SAAR it was the continued story of ‘one-step forward and then two-steps back’. After March and April’s strong showing the global market regressed to the hesitant levels of January and February with a SAAR of 80.8m recorded.


With the exception of North America, the fragility of the recovery was shown across the board. In Asia, the decline in SAAR was unsurprisingly most obvious in India as the country battled its 2nd wave of infections.

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