- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 17 March

Worldwide GDP forecast looks positive. After downturn for several months, positive GDP is forecast in all countries; 2021 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently 5.6%.

Unemployment continues to be high. According to the OECD, the unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 6.8% in December 2020.

- SECTOR IMPACT-

Latest update: 19 August

Sales review

July’s light vehicle sales have now been reported for most global markets, allowing us to estimate monthly sales with a degree of confidence. Sales fell by 5% year-on-year, in line with our previous monthly forecast.


The continuation of the previous months’ trend showed a market recovery being stymied by both supply shortages and rolling COVID-19 infection around the world. By GlobalData’s estimates SAAR was marginally ahead of both May’s and June’s rates at just 82.7m. After driving the market in June, sales in West Europe once again weakened appreciably. This was not too much of a surprise, last year’s sales marked many markets coming of their first lockdowns and some were turbocharged by lucrative scrappage subsidies. The US demand resurgence was once again stopped in its tracks by supply side issues, although US customers may have to get used to skinnier inventory as OEMs there wake-up to the benefits of higher transaction prices and a richer model mix.


China’s sales were much in line with expectations, despite the headline 11.6% fall. India’s market continued its resurgence after COVID-19 infections and restrictions eased, with a SAAR of 4.1m being its highest since February. In a month when positive signs were conspicuous by their absence, Japan’s SAAR increasing to 4.4m from June’s 4.1m was one crumb of comfort worth noting.

Sales outlook 2021

On the back of an unsurprising July’s sales, GlobalData’s forecast for the year is set at 84.5m, an 11.7% increase on 2020 but 5% lower than 2019’s total.


Globally, for H2, we now see that average monthly YoY changes will change negative to -0.9%, with some solace for markets provided by Q4 where 0.1% increases are forecast.

Chip shortage

A new analysis by GlobalData puts the year-to-date revenue losses incurred by OEMs at between $60.9 and $100.5bn. Losses will extend at least into Q3, but are expected to ease in Q4 as chip inventory is backfilled.


Worldwide 155 plants have suffered shutdowns. While Ford has suffered the most in volume losses, GM can lay claim to having the two plants most affected by the chip shortages. Its Fairfax and Ingersoll plants have been down for 28 weeks year-to-date. That they have been so affected demonstrates how GM has navigated through the crisis by enriching its model mix and focusing efforts on those vehicles most in demand and the most profitable. Next most affected have been Stellantis’s Belvidere plant (down for 25 weeks) and GM’s Lansing Grand River (22 weeks). Ford’s most impacted plant is the F-150 plant at Kansas City.