Covid-19 briefing

July’s light vehicle sales have now been reported for most global markets, allowing us to estimate monthly sales with a degree of confidence. Sales fell by 5% year-on-year, in line with our previous monthly forecast.

The continuation of the previous months’ trend showed a market recovery being stymied by both supply shortages and rolling COVID-19 infection around the world. By GlobalData’s estimates SAAR was marginally ahead of both May’s and June’s rates at just 82.7m. After driving the market in June, sales in West Europe once again weakened appreciably. This was not too much of a surprise, last year’s sales marked many markets coming of their first lockdowns and some were turbocharged by lucrative scrappage subsidies. The US demand resurgence was once again stopped in its tracks by supply side issues, although US customers may have to get used to skinnier inventory as OEMs there wake-up to the benefits of higher transaction prices and a richer model mix.

China’s sales were much in line with expectations, despite the headline 11.6% fall. India’s market continued its resurgence after COVID-19 infections and restrictions eased, with a SAAR of 4.1m being its highest since February. In a month when positive signs were conspicuous by their absence, Japan’s SAAR increasing to 4.4m from June’s 4.1m was one crumb of comfort worth noting.